FtFoC #18

>> Tuesday, August 18, 2009

18: “There are scores of fake fossils out there, and they have cast a dark shadow over the whole field. When you go to these fossil shows, it’s difficult to tell which ones are fakes and which ones are not.” - Lee Strobel

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FtFoC #17

>> Monday, August 17, 2009

17: "Further, Darwinian explanations for such things are often too supple: Natural selection makes humans self-centered and aggressive— except when it makes them altruistic and peaceable. Or natural selection produces virile men who eagerly spread their seed—except when it prefers men who are faithful protectors and providers. When an explanation is so supple that it can explain any behavior, it is difficult to test it experimentally, much less use it as a catalyst for scientific discovery." -Philip Skell

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FtFoC #16

>> Sunday, August 16, 2009

This one might be my favorite so far. :-)

16: "I see no reason for believing that one accident should be able to give me a correct account of all the other accidents. It’s like expecting that the accidental shape taken by the splash when you upset a milk jug should give you a correct account of how the jug was made and why it was up." -C.S. Lewis

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FtFoC #15

>> Saturday, August 15, 2009

15: “If radiometric dating doesn’t work on rocks the ages of which we know, how can we trust it to work on rocks of unknown age?” -Dan Lietha

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More Mortgage Trouble?

>> Friday, August 14, 2009



Hello all! 

I haven’t been posting much in the way of politics and/or economics recently, as you may have noticed,  but an article from money.cnn.com caught my attention and I thought it would be good to share.  In the article, Karen Weaver, global head of Deutsch Bank’s securitization research division (responsible for analyzing credit default swaps, collateralized mortgage obligations, “and other exotic Wall Street products”) argues that “48% of U.S. mortgage owners will end up owing more than their home is worth by 2011”. Excerpt:

 

"The figure may have left many Americans wondering how this could be possible. But consider that 27% of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage are already "underwater." And according to Deutsche Bank, home prices may fall another 14% before hitting a bottom.


How many Americans are underwater?


Currently we estimate that 14 million homeowners have negative equity. However, based on our home price forecast, as prices continue to fall we think that number could reach 25 million, or 48% of all mortgagors.


Where does this leave us?


The obvious takeaway of falling home prices and being underwater is what it does for defaults. But there's a bigger implication, which is that when we look at the economy over the past decade or two, it's been very much a consumer economy.


What has been driving the consumer hasn't been gains in incomes. What has been driving them is easy credit and rising home values. And the fact that their home price was rising and they could borrow against that through home equity lines or loans or refinancing, it augurs for a very different economy going forward if people don't have that option….So by creating products that lowered the payment, or lowered the amount of down-payment, it enabled more people to buy a home. It also perpetuated the bubble.”



 

The point of the article is…the after effects of the housing bubble – created largely (more than any other single factor at best) by artificially and unsustainably cheap credit – aren’t going away anytime soon.  Even if the Weaver’s estimates are too high, we should still be concerned.  I don’t personally think the economy will be stabilized until the bulk of these “toxic” loans are gone, and defaulting will probably end up being a major instrument through which the toxic mortgages are ended.  

Ironically, even if our governments attempts to stimulate and stabilize the economy work reasonably well,  Weaver thinks many who are underwater on their mortgages will default anyway just as a matter of common sense – unless of course there is an unprecedented economic boom resulting in a significant income increase for those underwater on their homes or the government bails them out (my words, not hers).  Excerpt:   

 
“At what point of being underwater do homeowners start falling into foreclosure rapidly?

Once you get to the point where negative equity is significant -- for example, 25% or more -- there have been studies that suggest you get more strategic defaults.

People say, "I bought my house for $500,000, it's worth $250,000, there are 10 available for sale in my neighborhood. It makes no economic sense to spend the rest of my life trying to pay off a $500,000 debt when there's no reasonable likelihood to expect this house to go back up to $500,000."

This might sound extreme, but we have borrowers who bought a $500,000 home in California at the peak of the market on $50,000 of income. So for them to devote their gross income for the next 10 years solely to paying off [their] mortgage doesn't make any sense.”

 

If you have time to read the whole article then I would recommend that you do.  It's not very long, and its case is made mostly on the basis of common sense.  

At the end of the day, I think many mortgage holders will tire of the stress that comes from being underwater on their homes, and with the excess of cheap homes available thanks to the recent burst housing bubble, it makes sense that lots of people will sooner or later default on their underwater mortgages and opt for cheaper, more economically sound, affordable, and stable housing.  When and if they do, it's probably either going to prolong the recession we are already in or send us into another mini-depression...at best perhaps. 

Of course, this is somewhat speculative, so ultimately we shall see what we shall see. :-)  Just don’t be surprised if housing and mortgages continue to be a major drag on the economy.

 

God bless and veritas supra!

 

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FtFoC #14

14: “Radiometric dating methods have given erroneous dates such as a date of millions of years for lava flows that occurred in the past few hundred years.” -Terry Mortenson

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FtFoC #13

>> Thursday, August 13, 2009

13: “Amounts of 14C and 12C in the atmosphere haven’t been constant throughout history (ex: Noah’s flood would have lowered the total amount of available carbon by burying lots of animals and plants). Therefore, something that lives (and died) when the proportion of 14C was less than normal would appear to have dies more years ago than it
actually did.” -Dan Lietha

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FtFoC #12

>> Wednesday, August 12, 2009

12: “When all the problems in radiometric dating are taken into account, a scientist can interpret the result of the carbon dating within a biblical timeframe, but these results still cannot PROVE the age of once living things.” -Dan Lietha

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It's no longer rebellious

>> Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Hey all!  Just ran across this quote that I thought was worth sharing.

"Everyone is sinning, so it is no longer rebellious to sin." (Mark Driscoll)

 

God bless and veritas supra omnis!

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FtFoC #11

11: Red blood cells have been found in the fossilized bone of a T-rex. Hemoglobin (a primary substance in red blood cells) is very fragile, and could not last for 65 million years. Therefore, dinosaurs must be younger than 65 million years. –Jonathan Park

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